Thursday, January 26, 2006

Never Trust Palestinian Exit Polls

Via NYT: Hamas Wins Majority in Palestinian Vote

This isn't a huge surprise. Well, it is considering I went to bed thinking that Fatah had won. But local elections had been showing the trend of people voting for Hamas.

The question is, what does this mean for the Palestinian Authority? Hamas mayors and city councils throughout Palestine have cleaned up a lot of the corruption of mismanagment of government funds. However, as well as they may be able to handle domestic policy, the important part is the foreign policy. How are they going to plot out a foreign policy with Israel, the United States, and the European Union, all of which believe they are a terrorist organization.

Israel, of course, is not taking it well.
"For Israelis, this is the definitive end of the illusion of a comprehensive peace," said Yossi Klein Halevi, a senior fellow at Jerusalem's Shalem Center. "There is no more credible hope of Palestinian moderation. For Israelis, it will only confirm what the last five years of terror have taught them: that the war is not about settlements, but about Israel's right to exist."
As far as who will lead this government, some are saying it won't be a member of Hamas.
But it is also possible that some Fatah members who have good relations with Hamas, like the Gazan legislator Ziad Abu Amr, who ran as an independent with Hamas support, will agree to join Hamas in a cabinet that probably will be led by a non-Hamas prime minister.
As for the scene in Palestine:
Even before the results were announced, the Fatah prime minister, Ahmed Qurei, who had warned President Mahmoud Abbas against holding these elections, resigned, and in a series of clashes here, Hamas supporters raised their green flag over the parliament building. They celebrated throughout Gaza and the West Bank, holding victory marches in major cities and hanging enormous green banners on public buildings.
So, what happens now? Does the Palestinian Authority declare war on Israel? How will moderate governments in the region, such as Jordan and Kuwait, deal with a Hamas led governement. And, how does President Bush deal with this? This is his "nightmare scenario." A radical, extremist, terrorist government operating in the heart of the Middle East. The irony is, they were democratically elected.